MLB Insiders Weigh Options for Tigers' Ace Tarik Skubal

Detroit Tigers' 28-year-old left-hander Tarik Skubal, a two-time consecutive American League Cy Young Award winner, is entering the final year of his contract in 2026 and is scheduled to hit free agency after the season. Industry insiders believe he could surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto's record $325 million contract, potentially becoming baseball's first $400 million pitcher. Tigers president Scott Harris is weighing three main options for Skubal's future. The least popular option among 11 insiders is to trade Skubal this winter, as it would require a 'gobsmacking return' and hinder the team's contender status. A more favored approach, if the 2026 season goes 'sideways,' is to trade him at the deadline, which would still yield a 'formidable' haul, such as two prospects ranking later in the top 100 or one elite young player, and would need to clear the bar of Detroit receiving a compensation pick. The third, bold option is to keep Skubal, attempt an extension, and accept a draft pick (valued at roughly $8-10 million) if he leaves. Despite Skubal expressing a desire to stay in Detroit, his representation by Scott Boras makes signing before testing the market unlikely. However, the impending labor strife with the CBA expiring on December 1, 2026, could increase the odds of an extension from 0% to 10%. Skubal's injury history, including Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022, are factors in long-term deal projections. The Tigers' payroll, which was $155 million last season, presents a challenge in justifying a quarter of it for one player, though a shorter deal with opt-outs could be a path to retention.