Devin Williams' 2025 Yankees ERA Misleading, Advanced Metrics Point to Strong Free Agency Demand

Devin Williams' 4.79 ERA with the New York Yankees in 2025 doesn't tell the full story, as advanced metrics like xERA (3.09), FIP (2.68), and DRA (3.01) indicate he pitched closer to a 3.00 ERA. Entering free agency, Williams is expected to draw significant interest, with Dodgers rumors already circulating. Despite losing the closer's job briefly, he maintained a 34.7% strikeout rate (97th percentile) and his lowest walk rate since 2020 (9.7%). After a tough start (11.25 ERA in first 10 games), he rebounded with a 3.83 ERA over his final 57 appearances, including a dominant August (49% K-rate) and 13 consecutive scoreless outings, encompassing four postseason games. A major factor in his high ERA was poor inherited runner support; 70% of the 10 runners he left on base scored, more than double the MLB average. While his hard-hit rate increased and airbender changeup's barrel rate declined, his underlying performance suggests he remains a valuable asset.